A chilling warning: "Jordan is next." This is the ominous message echoing through the corridors of power as the Israeli government's annexation plans for the West Bank unfold. A once-distant nightmare, the idea of Jordan becoming the Palestinian state, has now become a terrifying reality.
Under the shadow of an extreme right-wing Israeli regime and the devastating war in Gaza, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan finds itself in a state of high alert. The Israeli cabinet's recent decision to register vast areas of the occupied West Bank as "state land" under their Ministry of Justice has sent shockwaves through Amman. This move, described as a "settlement revolution" by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, effectively bypasses the military administration that has governed the territory since 1967, treating it as Israeli soil.
For Jordan, this bureaucratic annexation is the final nail in the coffin of the status quo. With the Israeli military's "Iron Wall" operation crushing refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem, the kingdom's political and military leaders are no longer asking if a forced transfer will happen, but how to prevent it.
"The transfer is no longer a threat; it's being executed," warns Mamdouh al-Abbadi, Jordan's former deputy prime minister. "We're witnessing the practical application... The alternative homeland is coming; after the West Bank, the enemy will move to the East Bank, to Jordan."
The fear in Amman is not just about a military invasion but a "soft transfer" - making life in the West Bank unbearable to force a gradual exodus towards Jordan. Sunday's decision to transfer land registration authority to the Israeli Justice Ministry is seen as a critical step in this process. By erasing the historical land registries that have protected Palestinian property rights, Israel is paving the way for massive settlement expansion.
Al-Abbadi, a seasoned political voice, points to dangerous shifts in Israeli military terminology. "There's a new brigade in the Israeli army called the Gilead Brigade. Gilead is a mountainous region near Amman, our capital. This indicates that the Israelis are proceeding with their strategy from the Nile to the Euphrates."
He argues that the 1994 Wadi Araba Treaty is effectively null and void in the eyes of the current Israeli leadership. "Smotrich's ideology is not just his personal view; it's become the state's doctrine. They killed the Wadi Araba treaty before it even had a chance. If we don't wake up, the strategy will be 'us or them'. There's no other option."
As diplomatic avenues close, attention turns to Jordan's military options. The Jordan Valley, a fertile strip of land separating the two banks, has become the frontline of what Jordanian strategists call an "existential defense."
Major-General (retired) Mamoun Abu Nowar, a military expert, warns that Israel's actions amount to an "undeclared war" on Jordan. He suggests that if displacement pressure continues, Jordan must be prepared to take drastic measures. "Jordan could declare the Jordan Valley a closed military zone to prevent displacement. This could lead to conflict and ignite the entire region."
While acknowledging the disparity in military capabilities, Abu Nowar dismisses the idea of Israel easily overrunning Jordan, citing the kingdom's unique social structure. "The Jordanian interior, with its tribes and clans, is like a second army. Every village and every governorate will be a defensive line for Jordan. Israel will not succeed in this confrontation."
However, he cautions that the situation is highly volatile. With the potential for the West Bank to erupt into a religious conflict, he warns of a "regional earthquake" if certain lines are crossed. "Our army is professional and ready for all scenarios, including military confrontation. We cannot leave things as they are."
Jordan's sense of abandonment by its oldest ally, the United States, only adds to its anxiety. For decades, the "Jordanian option" - the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom - was a cornerstone of US policy. But Oraib al-Rantawi, director of the Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, argues that this "strategic wager" has failed.
"The bet on Washington has faltered, if not collapsed," al-Rantawi says. He points to a "paradigm shift" during Donald Trump's presidency, where Washington moved its regional focus from Amman and Cairo to Gulf capitals, "dazzled by money and investments."
Even under the Biden administration and now with Trump's return, the US has shown a willingness to sacrifice Jordanian interests for Israel. "When push comes to shove, Washington will choose Israel without hesitation," al-Rantawi asserts.
He describes Jordan's position as precarious, caught between the fire of US aid and the existential threat posed by Israel. General Abu Nowar shares this skepticism about US protection, questioning the value of Jordan's status as a key non-NATO ally. "Will they apply Article 5 of NATO to us? This lack of clarity undermines America's credibility."
In the face of isolation, voices in Amman are calling for a radical shift in Jordan's alliances. Traditionally, the kingdom has maintained a cold peace with the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Ramallah while distancing itself from Hamas and other resistance factions. Al-Rantawi believes this has been a strategic mistake.
"Jordan shot itself in the foot diplomatically," he explains, by exclusively dealing with the weakened PA in Ramallah. He contrasts this with Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, which maintained ties with Hamas and thus retained leverage. "Cairo, Doha, and Ankara kept ties with Hamas, strengthening their presence even with the US. Jordan voluntarily gave up this role... or due to miscalculation."
Al-Rantawi suggests this reluctance stems from internal fears of empowering the Muslim Brotherhood within Jordan, but the cost has been a loss of regional influence when Amman needs it most.
The elite consensus is that the time for "diplomatic warnings" is over. The language in Amman has shifted to mobilization and survival.
In early February, the kingdom officially resumed its compulsory military service program, known as "Flag Service," ending a 35-year hiatus. The Jordanian armed forces stated the move aims to "develop combat capabilities to keep pace with modern warfare methods" in response to complex regional conditions.
Al-Abbadi goes further, calling for universal conscription to ensure total readiness. "We ask the state for compulsory conscription; everyone in Jordan must be able to bear arms."
He also advocates for cultural mobilization. "We must teach our children at least Hebrew, because he who knows the language of a people is safe from their evil."
Calling for strict monitoring of the King Hussein (Allenby) Bridge crossing, he adds, "If there's a slow, camouflaged transfer... we must close the bridges immediately and without hesitation."
As the Israeli Justice Ministry begins rewriting the land deeds of the West Bank, erasing Palestinian ownership just as their homes are being demolished, Jordan finds itself in its most precarious moment since 1967. The buffer is gone, and the kingdom stands alone in the path of the storm.
"The world gives speeches, everyone condemns... and Israel acts," al-Abbadi says. "If we don't wake up... the strategy will be 'us or them'. There's no other strategy."
A chilling warning indeed, but one that must be heeded if Jordan is to navigate this perilous path.
